0100479009

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Determinants of UK-Japan and UK-Korea Trade in the Light of Trade Agreements, Brexit and COVID-19 Pandemic

English (英語)

国民経済雑誌

227(2)

29-43

神戸大学経済経営学会

2023-02-10

2024-03-04

This study applies the vector autoregressive method to examine the determinants of UK-Japan and UK-Korea trade since the 2000s. Given the European Union’s (EU) implemented trade agreements with the two countries and the UK’s individual agreements with Japan and Korea, which came into effect when the UK left the EU, we look at the developments in and determinants of the UK’s bilateral trade with Japan and Korea. In addition to estimating the impact of the economic situation and real exchange rate on the trade, we also look at the impact of the aforementioned EU trade agreements and Brexit. Results show that the UK exports to both countries are considerably more dependent on the partner’s economic situation and exchange rate than imports. This finding suggests that UK’s ability to extend its exports to the two countries lies largely beyond the scope of its own efforts. UK exports are also more affected by the implementation of trade agreements than imports.

VAR

紀要論文