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Projection of extremes in Fiji and Nepal

English (英語)

神戸大学都市安全研究センター研究報告

29

152-162

神戸大学都市安全研究センター

2025-03

Record-breaking typhoons and prolonged widespread flooding are examples of extremes linked to climate change. Since extremes are rare and devastating, understanding the likelihood of its occurrence in the context of future climate conditions is relevant for policymakers to design mitigation measures and adaptation strategies. To understand climate change, scientists have developed Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the earth’s climate system with numerical representations of the physical processes (i.e., atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land surface) on a computer. GCMs use a grid to divide the earth into small square areas, and then make predictions for each of these squares. However, these squares are too big to make detailed predictions of the likelihood of extremes for specific city or locality. To address this, researchers from the SENTAN Program downscaled the GCM outputs to a finer grid size. This paper discusses the downscaled products of estimating the impacts of extreme tropical cyclone in Viti Levu, Fiji and extreme precipitation at Bagmati River Basin in Nepal under future climate conditions. It also analyzes challenges and options of downscaling.

SENTAN

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