0100504180

open access

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Demographic shift and changing landscape of Nepal : migration, population redistribution, and land use transitions

English (英語)

神戸大学都市安全研究センター研究報告

30

79-90

神戸大学都市安全研究センター

2026-03

Nepal is currently undergoing a profound demographic shift fueled by declining fertility, reduced mortality, and high levels of out-migration. These demographic factors have caused a massive redistribution of the population and significant changes in land use across the country's ecological regions. While the total population expanded from 11.56 million in 1971 to 29.16 million in 2021, the annual growth rate slowed dramatically from 2.62% to 0.92%. The Mountain and Hill regions have lost their proportionate population share. In contrast, the Tarai has become the dominant region, containing 53.6% of the national population as of 2021. The absentee population grew from 0.76 million in 2001 to 4.46 million in 2021, now making up 15.3% of the total population. This migration-led economy is evidenced by remittances, which account for 25.9% of Nepal's GDP. Migration has led to increased forest cover in the Hill and Siwalik zones, even as national cropland decreased from 26.3% to 24.2% between 2000 and 2019. The average agricultural landholding size dropped from 1.1 ha (1995/96) to 0.4 ha (2022/23), while the share of agricultural households fell from 73.9% to 60.3%. While Nepal has entered a demographic dividend window, it faces the dual crises of depopulating uplands and intensifying land fragmentation. This study highlights the urgent need for integrated policies that address these demographic transitions and ensure sustainable land management across all ecological zones.

Nepal

紀要論文